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Traditional deterrence assumes countries act like calm, rational players pursuing clear national interests. But in many authoritarian systems, that’s not how decisions are really made. Power often rests in the hands of one individual — and that individual may care less about abstract national goals and more about staying in power, protecting loyal elites, building personal wealth, or shaping their legacy in history. If we want deterrence to work in those contexts, is it possible to think less about “what does the other country needs?” and more about “what does the leader want?”

Bio:

Colonel Nicolas (Nic) Gauthier joined the Canadian Armed Forces in 1999 and was commissioned as an infantry officer into The Royal Montreal Regiment. Following his graduation, he transferred to the regular component and has since served with all three battalions of the Royal 22e Régiment. Colonel Gauthier has most recently served as Director of Expeditionary Operations at the Canadian Joint Operations Command headquarter, his previous practical policy experience include service as Canada’s Defence Attaché to Ukraine in Kyiv during Russia’s full-scale invasion, serving as a Senior Analyst within the Privy Council Office’s Foreign and Defence Policy Secretariat, and as Senior Staff Officer for Operations and Plans at NATO Headquarter in Brussels. Additional command and staff experiences include serving as the Deputy Commander of the Combat Training Center, command of the Infantry School, and as Executive Assistant to the permanent military representative of Canada to the Military Committee. He holds a Bachelor of Science from Université de Montréal, a Master of Public Administration from the Royal Military College of Canada, and a Master of Business Administration from the Quantic School of Business and Technology. Colonel Gauthier has two daughters, Amalia and Clara. He enjoys running, skiing, caving and rock climbing.